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Bitcoin (BTC) narrowly avoids breaking critical support, is the worst over?

Three key metrics indicate that the Bitcoin price crash isn’t over yet.
Many HODLers still hope for a BTC rebound in the near time.

Many investors feared the worst when the bitcoin price dipped to below $20,000. While it avoided breaking support, the question on everyone’s lips is, is the worst over? However, several on-chain analytics indicate that the worst isn’t over yet.

Many BTC HODLers are even more worried this week. About 50 percent of them are holding their assets at a loss. Also, miners continue to push more of their holdings to exchanges. The top BTC bulls, such as Microstrategy, have had to come out and defend their positive stance about the leading digital asset as its price keeps declining.

Many analysts are predicting that the BTC price will still trade at $11,000. Hence, CNF analyses the degree to which the market still needs to fall to correspond with the lowest bottom zones in history.

Weak HODLers must still be shaken out

There are still some weak BTC holders even though the asset currently trades at an 18-month low. The Philip Swift RHODL ratio suggests that investors should expect more capitulation.

Swift is the founder of LookIntoBitcoin, an on-chain analytics platform. History shows that there have been more long-term holders at macro price bottoms than short-term holders.

RHODL is the ratio between 1-week and 2-year groups of the realized cap HODL waves metric. This metric divides coins based on the last time they moved from one wallet to another. This is known as the weighted by realized price.

In simple terms, a green zone RHODL indicates peak capitulation. Hence, a price floor is near or is being set in place. However, Glassnode data shows that the RHODL is yet to hit the green zone.

Bitcoin’s realized HODL ratio. Source: Glassnode

Many HODLers still hope for a rebound

Many BTC HODLers are holding it at a loss at its current price. However, many of them still believe that a rebound is imminent. Hence, they aren’t selling yet. A recent CryptoQuant data showed that 46 percent of current BTC holders are holding it at a loss.

Even if historical patterns are considered, this stat isn’t enough to suggest the beginning of a macro capitulation. The CryptoQuant report states that 60 percent of the total BTC supply must be held at an unrealized loss before macro capitulation can occur. This was what happened during earlier market capitulation events, including that of late 2018 and March 2020.

Bitcoin’s supply in loss percentage. Source: CryptoQuant.

Last week, CryptoQuant CEO, Ki-Young Ju, emphasized the need for BTC/USD to revert to its realized price. According to him, this event has been developing in the last two years. It indicates that the spot price is below the average price where all coins last moved.

Bitcoin miners aren’t recouping their mining expenses yet

Bitcoin miners have been selling huge volumes of their hoarded BTC holdings at exchanges. However, their production cost is nearer to $30,000 than $20,000. According to a Cointelegraph report, Bitcoin’s (BTC) movement to exchange is now at a 7-month high.

Hence, the Bitcoin network hash rate isn’t nosediving yet. Otherwise, periods of intense price pressure usually result in a huge decline in the bitcoin network hash rate. The hash ribbons metric confirms the little impact on the bitcoin network hash rate.

This metric determines the occurrence of miner capitulation by comparing the hash rate’s 30 and 60-day moving average. A cross of the 30-day average over the 60-day one indicates that the worst is over. Thus, miners can start working again. However, this crossover hasn’t happened yet. History suggests that more pain is still to come.

Bitcoin’s hash ribbon analysis. Source: Glassnode


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