Bitcoin price rejects at $24K as ‘classic short setup’ spoils bulls’ fun
$24,000 BTC price refuses to flip to support while the weekly close remains shrouded in uncertainty.
Bitcoin (BTC) saw fresh volatility after July’s final Wall Street open as highs north of $24,000 remained solid resistance.
BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
Resistance strikes BTC at $24,000
The pair had attempted to match the week’s local top of $24,450, this ultimately failing to materialize as a resurgent U.S. dollar pressured crypto despite the gains of U.S. stocks .
The U.S. dollar index (DXY) continued higher during the Wall Street trading, passing 106 after falling to its lowest levels since July 5.
U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-hour candle chart. Source: TradingView
Record eurozone inflation added to the mix of macro triggers on the day, while the monthly close remained a guessing game for Bitcoin analysts.
On short timeframes, popular trader Crypto Tony eyed what he called a “classic short setup” around the high, which remained Bitcoin’s best since mid-June.
A classic short setup with a clear invalidation point ..
Did anyone catch it pic.twitter.com/DTW2rAYM9K
— Crypto Tony (@CryptoTony__) July 29, 2022
Nonetheless, other key levels remained apt to act as support in the event of a deeper drawdown. These included Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average at around $22,800 and realized price at $21,820.
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) July 29, 2022
In terms of the former, however, Bitcoin’s weekly candle would need to close for confirmation of a resistance/support flip, fellow trader and analyst Rekt Capital noted on the day.
The weekly close would also act as the monthly close, making July 31 a key psychological day of reckoning after June’s 40% drawdown — Bitcoin’s worst monthly performance since September 2011, figures from on-chain data resource Coinglass confirmed.
Bitcoin monthly returns chart (screenshot). Source: Coinglass
180 days until “full recovery”?
Summing up 2022 for crypto markets so far, meanwhile, a new report from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode and markets site CoinMarketCap hinted at how long the road to recovery could be.
After the mayhem, which began with the Terra (LUNA) — now renamed Terra Classic (LUNC) — collapse in May, a “resetting” had occurred throughout crypto assets, the report argued.
With Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) alone down 75% from all-time highs in under a year, it may not be until 2023 that the trend can change definitively.
“The market has only been in this position since mid-June, and previous bear cycles have taken an average of 180-days before full scale recovery was in effect,” it read.
“All in all, 2022 has thus far been a major resetting of market expectations, a wide ranging de-leveraging, and ideally, the start of a new set of foundations, upon which even taller structures may be built,”
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