Bitcoin price still due $12K dip, says trader as ETF guru backs GBTC

BTC price bear market bottom targets continue to flow in below $14,000 despite Bitcoin rebounding above $16,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) stayed undecided at the Nov. 24 Wall Street open as one trader reinforced a $12,000 BTC price target.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

BTC price “main target” for bottom $12,000-$14,000

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD circling $16,500 as an eerie calm continued on the market.

The pair nonetheless failed to convince analysts that better times were on the way, and popular commentator Il Capo of Crypto suggested that it was only a matter of time before downside resumed.

On both high timeframes (HTF) and low timeframes (LTF), the picture looked bleak.

“Htf: lower lows and lower highs after breaking a monthly redistribution range. Below June’s low and at supply zone. Ltf: weak trend caused by a short squeeze (bull trap). Volume dying,” he summarized to Twitter followers on the day.

“12000-14000 remains the main target for a local bottom formation.”BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Il Capo of Crypto/ Twitter

As Cointelegraph reported, multiple BTC price forecasts continue to call for a sub-$14,000 bear market bottom.

Replying to Il Capo of Crypto, meanwhile, fellow analyst Gert van Lagen offered a potential upside resistance/ support flip at $18,100 as a bullish cue.

BTC/USD rising from current levels to hold there, he wrote, would make the recent two-year low of $15,480 a “triple bottom” for 2022.

“It qualifies indeed only if 18.1k gets broken,” Van Lagen stressed.

Analyst: “99.9% chance” GBTC Bitcoin exists

Within crypto circles, the fate of Digital Currency Group (DCG), its subsidiary, Grayscale and the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) continued to constitute a major talking point.

Related: Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest adds more Bitcoin exposure as GBTC, Coinbase stock hit new lows

One of the latest contributions came from Bloomberg Intelligence exchange-traded fund (ETF) analyst James Seyffart, who in a dedicated Twitter thread said that despite market nerves, voluntary liquidation of the $10.5 billion GBTC was “unlikely.”

“That just doesn’t seem like its on the table to me,” he wrote.

Acknowledging frustration at the fund’s discount to the Bitcoin spot price, Seyffart concluded that ultimately, given the material available, there was a “99.9% chance” that it held the BTC it claimed via custodian Coinbase.

The GBTC spot price discount was at 39.2% as of Nov. 24, data from monitoring resource Coinglass showed.

GBTC premium vs. asset holdings vs. BTC/USD chart. Source: Coinglass

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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