Optimism and expectations increase around crypto markets, but U.S. inflation data looms large this week.
Bitcoin (BTC) looked to target new August highs at the Aug. 8 Wall Street open as upcoming United States inflation data fueled sentiment.
BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
$25,000 next major BTC resistance
The pair was within striking distance of its highest since mid-June at the time of writing, while traders and analysts scanned the charts for signs of resistance.
For on-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators, this came in the form of sellers at $25,000 and Bitcoin’s 100-day moving average (MA).
“Bear Market Rally is pumping ahead of this week’s CPI report,” it wrote as part of its latest Twitter update.
An accompanying chart showed long signals still characterizing the daily chart, with the 100-day MA sitting at around $25,650.
Order book data from the largest global exchange Binance reinforced expectations of friction in that area, as sell liquidity was mounting around the $25,000 mark.
BTC/USD 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp) with 100-day MA. Source: TradingView
Running the show on risk assets was the Aug. 10 Consumer Price Index (CPI) print, with markets waiting to see if inflation in the U.S. had set a peak.
While this would notionally allow crypto some breathing space, commentators pointed out that the risk of a major stock market correction remained, with crypto still heavily correlated.
Moves by Larry Fink, CEO of the world’s largest asset manager BlackRock, exacerbated concerns that risk assets were simply in the midst of an extended bear market relief rally.
After last week’s partnership with U.S. exchange Coinbase, Fink sold a tranche of more than 44,000 BlackRock shares this month, his first major sale since the months before the March 2020 COVID-19 crash. Concerns thus focused on whether Fink now knew something that the majority did not.
LARRY FINK CEO OF BLACKROCK WHICH IS THE WORLDS LARGEST ASSET MANAGER WITH OVER 10 TRILLION IN ASSETS SOLD ANOTHER 8% OF HIS OWN STOCK LAST WEEK. THIS IS HIS BIGGEST STOCK SALE AFTER COVID , HIS LAST BIGGEST STOCK SALE WAS RIGHT BEFORE THE COVID CRASH. $BLK pic.twitter.com/5aNwTjLzPM
— Gurgavin (@gurgavin) August 8, 2022
“I think the one thing that can push prices back down is the stock market having another major pullback,” trader and pundit Max Rager continued on the day.
“Outside, hard to see something putting as much selling pressure as we had with both the LUNA/3AC events.”
Rager argued that since the majority were expecting a trip to June’s lows or worse, this would no longer be what causes the market “max pain.”
Ethereum Merge could be “buy the rumor, sell the news”
Out of the top ten cryptocurrencies by market cap, it was not Bitcoin putting in the best daily or even weekly performance.
ETH/USD, amid ongoing speculation over the Merge and its consequences, reached $1,817 on Binance, marking its highest since June 9.
For on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, the good times could continue until the event itself, expected to be in September.
“There is little directional bias evident in Bitcoin derivatives markets. On the Ethereum side however, traders are clearly holding a long bias, expressed heavily in options contracts centred in September,” it wrote about traders’ plans in the latest edition of its newsletter, “The Week On-Chain,” released on Aug. 8.
“Both futures and options market are in backwardation after September, suggesting traders are expecting the Merge to be a ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’ style event, and have positioned accordingly.”ETH/USD 1-day candle chart (Binance). Source: TradingView
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