The price of Ethereum fell to $1,076 on the 9th of November, significantly recovering to $1,351 the next day. This was short-lived, as another downtrend was seen and with the price is getting close to the November 9th low again. We might see a breakout to the downside.
Looking at the 4h chart, it can be seen that the price made a descending channel from the 10th of November. We also see that another interaction with its support level is currently being made. As another retest is occurring, there might be a bounce, but it is still unclear whether or not this can mark a higher low compared to the 9th of November.
Ethereum (ETH) Price Context
The context of the price progression is key in the upcoming projections. From the 5th of November, the price fell sharply by 35% measured to its lowest point on the 9th of November.
This impulsive downfall came just after a recovery that started on the 21st of September when the price was trading at $1,244. An increase of 33.5% was seen measured to its high on November 5th at $1,661.
Ultimately, this high was a lower one compared to the previous two from August 14th and was a retest of the resistance zone above. Rejecting the price at those levels caused a shard downturn, resulting in lower levels than September 21st.
This lower low invalidated the possibility that the price started increasing impulsively to the upside from the 21st of September and, in turn, validated that this upside move was corrective in nature.
Thus, the descending move from the 5th of November is yet another impulse wave. As it appeared to have ended and the price has consolidated, it doesn’t make sense to start another uptrend. However, there can be some upside potential before further downtrend continuation.
If the descending move from the 5th of November was the start of another downtrend, and its first sub-wave ended on the 9th, then the currently seen formation should be its corrective wave.
It is highly unlikely, although possible, that the ascending move from the 9th to the 10th was the completion of this corrective sub-wave ABC. More likely, it was only its wave A with the descending channel forming after its B wave. This means that another increase might occur for the completion of the C wave, with the price target projected around $1,400, at the same length as the presumed A wave.
Looking back, it can be seen that this $1400 area is a significant one. This is why the target makes overlaps with the consolidation zone from the 21st of September. Its retest would be another lower high, potentially giving sellers a better price before pushing further to the downside.
Alternatively, the price already completed its second wave of the higher degree and its lower ABC correction on the 10th of November. This would mean that the descending channel seen after is the next sub-wave of the third wave to the downside.
There are numerous problems with this count. First and foremost is that there is an unlikely probability that the increase from the 9th of November is ABC and a correction of the same degree as the previous downfall. Be it as it may, the descending channel is definitely not an impulsive five-wave move at its sub-division as in three-wave moves.
But according to this count, a similar price progression can be expected. However, only a much lower price target for the upside move would be seen, which would be a lower high compared to the one on the 10th of November, potentially around $1,240.
In both cases, the picture looks grim for the price of Ethereum, as eventually a breakout below $1,000 would be expected. It isn’t a question of if, but when? The conclusion is that it would be executed from the current levels, but some sort of recovery will occur first.
In a primary scenario, a C wave should develop to around $1,400, after which the next wave to the downside would be expected to push the price below $1,000.
In an alternative count, the price is going to make a minor lower low. It could potentially retest the November 9th low, and make an increase for a lower high to $1,200. But from there another impulse wave to the downside is highly likely, as the 3rd wave of the higher degree.
The ultimate price target would be much lower than $760, but that zone would be the first potential ending point of the next descending move. If the price started moving in a five-wave manner from the 5th of November, then the ultimate price target for its completion would be in the zone of $600.